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Summary
Corn market outlook remains steady near $4.3 per bushel, but underlying demand indicators suggest bullish momentum may be building. Rising global consumption, higher trade volumes, and firm export activity from the US and Canada point to strengthening fundamentals, even as overall supplies remain comfortable according to the latest USDA estimates.
Corn Market Outlook Holds Near $4.3 Per Bushel
Corn prices are trading around $4.3 per bushel, struggling to capitalize on the rebound seen in January. While price action has remained contained, broader demand signals suggest underlying support.
The US Department of Agriculture, in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate, noted that corn demand is rising. However, the agency does not expect this increase to materially tighten global supplies.
Corn Market Outlook: Production Slightly Lower, Consumption Higher
Global corn production has been revised marginally lower to 1,295.91 million tonnes from 1,296 million tonnes estimated earlier. Even with this adjustment, output remains significantly above last season’s 1,230.58 million tonnes.
Consumption, however, has been raised to 1,301.28 million tonnes from 1,299.80 million tonnes previously projected. This marks an increase of nearly 50 million tonnes compared with 1,251.49 million tonnes in 2024-25.
World trade has also been projected higher at 199.88 million tonnes, compared with 197.92 million tonnes earlier and 190.99 million tonnes last season.
As a result, ending stocks are forecast to decline to 288.97 million tonnes from the earlier projection of 290.91 million tonnes and 294.35 million tonnes last season, representing a five-year low.
Despite these tightening stock indicators, the US season-average farm price is projected at $4.10 per bushel.
Corn Market Outlook Influenced by Export Price Movements
The USDA noted that global export bids for South American corn softened in January, even as shipments from Ukraine and the US increased.
Argentine prices fell by $7 to $214 per tonne, as larger US exports offset weather-related concerns around the upcoming harvest. Brazilian prices declined by $2 to $223 per tonne.
In contrast, US offers rose by $4 to $220 per tonne, while Ukrainian prices also increased by $4 to $224 per tonne.
These movements indicate shifting competitive positioning among exporters while overall trade flows remain active.
Corn Market Outlook Supported by Coarse Grain Dynamics
Beyond direct corn fundamentals, developments in the broader coarse cereal market are drawing attention.
According to a cattle market update by Jerry Klassen of Resilient Capital, Saudi Arabia purchased over 250,000 tonnes of feed barley between September and November. Canadian barley yields increased 25 per cent last year, and China imported nearly 1.5 million tonnes of Canadian barley, benefiting from lower prices.
Klassen noted that Saudi purchases of Canadian barley typically occur at price lows, suggesting potential bottoming in coarse cereal markets.
With Canada expected to see stronger domestic demand for coarse grains and the US maintaining export flows, demand for corn may remain supported.
Conclusion
The corn market outlook reflects a balance between stable supply projections and strengthening demand indicators. While production remains ample, rising consumption, higher trade volumes, declining stocks, and activity in related coarse grain markets suggest that supportive fundamentals are forming. Current prices may not fully reflect these shifts, but underlying trends indicate that bullish momentum could build in the months ahead.