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Summary
Wheat production outlook for 2025-26 has been revised slightly lower by the USDA to 841.8 million tonnes, reflecting declines in Turkey, Mongolia and South Africa that offset gains in Argentina and the UK. Global consumption is projected higher, ending stocks are trimmed, and wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade moved higher following the report before easing on supply expectations.
Wheat Production Outlook Adjusted as Regional Shifts Emerge
The wheat production outlook for 2025-26 has been revised down to 841.8 million tonnes from 842.17 million tonnes estimated earlier. Despite the marginal cut, output remains above the 800.43 million tonnes recorded in 2024-25.
The downward revision is driven primarily by lower projections in Turkey, Mongolia and South Africa. Turkey’s wheat production is now estimated at 17.5 million tonnes, compared with 18 million tonnes projected earlier and 19 million tonnes last year. Production in Mongolia and South Africa, combined with other countries, is estimated at 60.48 million tonnes, lower than the earlier 60.76 million tonnes and 64.43 million tonnes a year ago.
These reductions have partly offset higher output expectations in Argentina and the UK.
Wheat Production Outlook Supported by Higher Argentina and UK Output
Argentina’s wheat production has been raised to 29.8 million tonnes from 29.5 million tonnes estimated earlier. Last year, Argentina produced 18.5 million tonnes.
In the UK, output is now expected to reach close to 12 million tonnes, compared with 11.86 million tonnes projected earlier and 11.15 million tonnes in the previous season.
The higher forecasts in these two countries have balanced the global downward revisions, keeping total production broadly stable despite regional cuts.
Wheat Production Outlook Meets Rising Global Consumption
Global wheat consumption for 2025-26 is projected at 824.1 million tonnes, slightly higher than the earlier estimate of 823.91 million tonnes and well above the 809.95 million tonnes recorded in 2024-25.
The upward revision reflects increased usage for food, seed and industrial purposes in Bangladesh and Ukraine. However, consumption in Afghanistan and Mexico is expected to decline more than initially anticipated.
Feed and residual use is seen slightly lower overall, as reduced consumption in Canada and Turkey is partly offset by higher demand in Indonesia and Vietnam.
Turkey’s offtake is now projected at 18.9 million tonnes, compared with 19.2 million tonnes earlier and last year. Indonesia’s consumption is estimated 400,000 tonnes higher at 12.2 million tonnes, up from 10.8 million tonnes in 2024-25. Canada’s consumption is expected to fall to 9.85 million tonnes from 10.35 million tonnes previously estimated, while Afghanistan’s is projected at 9.2 million tonnes compared with 9.5 million tonnes earlier and 9 million tonnes last year.
Wheat Production Outlook and Stocks: Ending Inventories Trimmed
Ending stocks are forecast at 277.51 million tonnes, lower than the earlier estimate of 278.25 million tonnes but above 259.77 million tonnes in 2024-25. Stocks in Argentina and Canada are expected to be lower than initially projected.
Global trade is projected higher for Bangladesh, the European Union, Indonesia and Vietnam, outweighing reductions for Mexico. Export forecasts have also been raised for Argentina, Canada and Kazakhstan, partly offset by a decline for the European Union.
Wheat Production Outlook Drives CBOT Futures Movement
The USDA report influenced market sentiment, with wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rising 0.5 per cent to $5.31 a bushel following the release. Prices remain above levels seen at the end of January, when the market touched an eight-week high.
The average US farm price is projected at $4.90 a bushel.
However, gains were partially pared as supply risks appeared to ease and overall availability remained ample. Wet weather conditions in North America also reduced concerns about potential crop losses. Even so, the revised wheat production outlook provided near-term support to the market.
Conclusion
The wheat production outlook for 2025-26 reflects marginal downward revisions driven by regional output cuts, while global consumption is projected higher and ending stocks are trimmed slightly. Market reaction on CBOT indicates sensitivity to even small shifts in supply expectations, although broader supply conditions remain relatively comfortable.